Fuzzy cognitive maps for municipal governance improvement.

This paper applies Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to understand the diverse behavior of municipal governments in Ecuador to find common elements that influence the well-being of citizens in the short and long term. Information gathering was conducted in two stages: in the first one, a group of 16 national experts was consulted to develop the initial FCM; in the second stage, local experts from 220 municipalities were interviewed to collect information on the general validity of initial FCMs and specific values given to concepts and relationships in their municipalities. Results show the importance of certain concepts for long-term municipal performance, such as the need for a competitive entrepreneurial sector, improving human resources in the municipality, and, particularly, having a competent mayor with leadership skills and a forward-looking vision that enables the development of municipal projects required to reach an efficient and equitable coverage of goods and services throughout the city. Through the application of genetic algorithms, the FCM was calibrated to ascertain the long-term dynamics of municipal development and the optimal values of the concepts that would optimize the attainment of the set objectives. The derived outcomes suggest the desirability of the maintenance of, in principle, unwanted structures like financial transfers from the central government and the need to exploit natural resources to attain urban development.

The choice of Madrid as the capital of Spain by Philip II in the light of the knowledge of his time: A transport network perspective.

The suitability of Madrid as the capital of Spain is analyzed from different perspectives, questioning the belief that this choice was eminently personal or political but lacked economic rationality. The paper analyzes Madrid's advantages over other possible capitals from the point of view of both intrinsic characteristics and those that depend on the transport network, such as the problem of supplies or the impact on the development of the surrounding territory. To deal with these questions it is necessary to consider logistical aspects that require an adjusted view of the existing transport network at that time. Using little-known primary sources and a novel methodology based on Delaunay triangulation, the 16th century Spanish transport network is reconstructed with a much higher level of accuracy than ever before. With this information, two maps are prepared that could be used for logistical analysis from a complex network perspective. The first map evaluates the real effects of the choice using an adjusted representation of the territory whilst the second map aims at avoiding the common fallacy of judging decisions made in the past applying current geographical know-how. This map, constructed with the planimetry of the 16th century, indicates how the somewhat deficient knowledge of Philip II with respect to the geographical reality of the day may have favored the choice of Madrid over Toledo, converting some Mediterranean coastal cities into more attractive options. The choice of Madrid as capital appears to be very reasonable in view of the different criteria used. Regarding supply difficulties, our results depart from traditional inclinations by deliberating the fact that the absence of a port in Madrid does not pose an insuperable problem. The latter is the case given that the advantages of maritime transport are far fewer than those usually considered, with Madrid's geographical position offering significant advantages in terms of road transport.

Complex networks to understand the past: the case of roads in Bourbon Spain.

The work aims to study, using GIS techniques and network analysis, the development of the road network in Spain during the period between the War of Succession and the introduction of the railway (1700-1850). Our research is based on a detailed cartographic review of maps made during the War of Succession, largely improving preexisting studies based on books of itineraries from the sixteenth century onwards. We build a new, complete map of the main roads at the beginning of the eighteenth century along with the matrix of transport costs for all the important towns describing the communications network. Our study of this complex network, supplemented by a counterfactual analysis carried out using a simulation model based on agents using different centralized decision-making processes, allows us to establish three main results. First, existing trade flows at the beginning of the eighteenth century had a radial structure, so the Bourbon infrastructure plan only consolidated a preexisting situation. Second, the development of the network did not suppose important alterations in the comparative centrality of the regions. Finally, the design of the paved road network was adequate for the economic needs of the country. These findings are in stark contrast with claims that the radial structure of the Bourbon roads was designed ex-novo with political or ideological objectives rather than economic ones. Our methodology paves the way to further studies of path-dependent, long-term processes of network design as the key to understanding the true origin of many currently existing situations.

Taming out-of-equilibrium dynamics on interconnected networks.

A wide variety of social, biological or technological systems can be described as processes taking place on networked structures in continuous interaction with other networks. We propose here a new methodology to describe, anticipate and manage, in real time, the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of processes that evolve on interconnected networks. This goal is achieved through the full analytical treatment of the phenomenology and its reduction to a two-dimensional flux diagram, allowing us to predict at every time step the dynamical consequences of modifying the links between the different ensembles. Our results are consistent with real data and the methodology can be translated to clustered networks and/or interconnected networks of any size, topology or origin, from the struggle for knowledge on innovation structures to international economic relations or disease spreading on social groups.

Improving transportation networks: Effects of population structure and decision making policies.

Transportation networks are one of the fundamental tools for human society to work, more so in our globalized world. The importance of a correct, efficient design of a transportation network for a given region or country cannot be overstated. We here study how network design is affected by the geography of the towns or nuclei to be connected, and also by the decision process necessary to choose which connections should be improved (in a generic sense) first. We begin by establishing that Delaunay networks provide an efficient starting point for the network design and at the same time allow us to introduce a computationally amenable model. Subsequent improvements lead to decentralized designs in geographies where towns are more or less homogeneously distributed, whereas radial designs arise when there is a core-periphery distribution of nodes. We also show that optimization of Delaunay networks outperforms that of complete networks at a lower cost, by allowing for a proper selection of the links to improve. In closing, we draw conclusions relevant to policy making applied to designing transportation networks and point our how our study can be useful to identify mechanisms relevant to the historical development of a region.